BSR [OUTPERFORM +12.3%] - Declining oil price pressures BSR’s NPAT-MI, share price

- We lower our target price (TP) for BSR by 23% to VND21,200/share but maintain our OUTPERFORM rating as BSR’s share price has dropped 19% over the last two months.

- Our lower TP reflects our 21% lower aggregate 2024-29F reported NPAT-MI forecast (respective changes of -74%/-20%/-10%/-11%/-11%/-10% for 2024/25/26/27/28/29F). The lower aggregate reported NPAT-MI is driven by (1) losses in Q3 2024, (2) our 9-20%lower gasoline spreads assumption, and (3) our inventory provision assumption of VND976bn for 2025, based on our expectation of a 13% YoY decline in Brent oil prices.

- We forecast 2024F NPAT-MI to decrease 85% YoY, driven by (1) 15% YoY lower sales volume because of the 5th turnaround (TA5) and (2) 34% YoY lower crack spreads. In 9M 2024, reported NPAT-MI was VND715bn (-89% YoY), primarily impacted by the losses in Q3 2024.