• We attended BSR’s annual general meeting (AGM) on April 23, 2025. Overall, management provided conservative earnings guidance for 2025, with a YoY recovery yet lower than the high base seen 2022-2023, while reiterating focus on upgrade and expansion project and increase share capital plan.
• Shareholders approved 2025 PBT guidance of VND837bn (+14% YoY) in the base case or VND1.3tn (+71% YoY) in the best case. These are equivalent to 14% or 21% of our full-year forecasts. 
• BSR shared its preliminary Q1 2025 sales volume of 1.8 million tonnes (+18% YoY; 24.3% of our full-year forecast) and revenue of VND32.2tn (+5% YoY; 24.8% of our full-year forecast). Profit has not yet been disclosed.
• Shareholders approved no cash dividend for 2024 earnings (vs the 2024 AGM plan of VND300/share and our current projection of VND700/share).
• BSR plans a share capital increase to VND50tn (+61% vs current), waiting for final approval from the Ministry of Finance.
• To resolve the delisting risk under the amended Securities Law, BSR has proposed that PVN partially divest its 92.13% stake and is actively seeking strategic investors, particularly from the Middle East, to support financing and crude supply for future projects.
• Our view: We foresee downside risk to our earnings forecast, pending a fuller review. 

Figure 1: BSR 2025 guidance

Source: BSR, Vietcap

BSR guide 2025 PBT of VND837bn (+14% YoY) in base case or VND1.3tn (+71% YoY) in high case, which are equivalent to 14% or 21% of our full year forecast. We attribute the management is being conservative to the volatility of the refining business. Historically, BSR’s actual NPAT was often higher than its initial guidance. The actual 2018/19/21/22/23/24 NPAT were 102%/98%/797%/1048%/521%/57% of their initial guidance, respectively.

BSR is in the final stage of its share capital increase plan, pending approval from the Ministry of Finance (MoF). PVN has approved BSR’s plan to increase its share capital to VND50tn (+61% YoY). BSR aims to implement this plan in 2025 to address the company's substantial capital requirements. According to BSR, the State Capital Management Committee (CMSC) has transferred the document to the MoF, which is expected to comment before April 26. This capital raise will be primarily allocated to the Dung Quat refinery upgrade and other key strategic projects. Management views this as a critical step to scale up BSR’s capacity and long-term growth.

BSR has report the delisting issue to relevant authorities and proposed potential solutions. Under the amended Securities Law (effective January 1, 2025), BSR faces the risk of delisting as it does not meet the requirement of having at least 10% of voting shares held by a minimum of 100 minority shareholders. Currently, PetroVietnam (PVN) holds 92.13% of BSR. Per BSR, one key recommendation is that PVN consider a partial divestment to meet the requirements. In parallel, BSR is actively seeking strategic investors. According to BSR, PVN has already held preliminary discussions with several interested parties, particularly investors from the Middle East. BSR aims to attract partners who can support both financing and crude supply for upcoming investments.

The upgrade and expansion project on track. BSR is in the final stages of completing the overall FEED (Front-End Engineering Design) for the Dung Quat refinery upgrade. The design will be submitted for approval on May 2, before launching the EPC contractor bidding process (BSR expect to sign the EPC contract by December 2025). BSR maintains its plan for commercial operation by 2028, in line with our expectations. BSR guide 2025 capex of VND1.7tn, which mainly allocate to upgrade and expansion project.

Powered by Froala Editor