- We maintain our BUY rating for BMP and increase our target price by 8% as we raise our 2023-2027F aggregate NPAT-MI by 6% due to BMP’s efforts in production and inventory optimization delivering better-than-expected results. We also roll our target price horizon forward to mid-2024.

- We increase our 2023F NPAT-MI forecast by 8% to VND622bn (USD26.3mn; -10% YoY) mainly because we raise our 2023F gross margin assumption while maintaining our revenue forecast.

- BMP guides for 2023 NPAT-MI of VND651bn (USD27.6mn; -7% YoY), which is equivalent to 105% of our current forecast. We attribute the discrepancy between BMP’s guidance and our forecast to BMP being more optimistic about 2023F demand and its expectation to win more market share in 2023F despite the challenging domestic construction landscape.

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