- We maintain a BUY rating for BMP and raise our target price (TP) by 5% to VND137,400/share.

- We raise our TP due to (1) rolling our TP to end-2025 and (2) increasing our 2025/26/27/28/29F NPAT-MI projections by 1%/6%/7%/7%/8%, respectively.

- Our higher 2026-29F NPAT-MI forecasts are due to raising our revenue forecasts by 2% p.a. and raising GPM by ~110 bps p.a. These outweigh our ~30 bps p.a. higher normalized SG&A/gross revenue assumption during the period. We raised our revenue forecast on greater optimism for real estate recovery, as the Vietnamese Government’s recent efforts to streamline operations should give a stronger boost to facilitate legal processes for projects. We raise our GPM forecasts due to the lack of stimulus that can indirectly boost commodities prices from the latest Chinese government meeting, rising US-China trade tension, and a slower-than-expected recovery of China’s construction demand. These factors should pressure the recovery of PVC resin prices.

- For 2025F, we raise our NPAT-MI forecast by 1%, driven by 2% higher revenue and 50 bps higher GPM, as we expect input prices to rise 3% YoY (down from 8% previously), influenced by recent developments in China. These outweigh an 80 bps increase in the normalized SG&A/gross revenue ratio, reflecting a higher-than-expected 2024 result due to slightly higher-than-expected salary and utilities expenses.

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