BMI – Earnings decrease YoY despite strong premium growth - Earnings Flash
  • 2024-10-31T00:00:00
  • Company Research

BMI released its 9M 2024 business results with a gross written premium of VND5.2tn (USD207mn; +14% YoY) and profit before tax (PBT) of VND219bn (USD9mn; -23% YoY), achieving 77% and 55% of our respective FY2024 forecasts. Though premium growth tracked slightly ahead of our expectations, earnings trail our forecast due to the higher-than-expected combined ratio and weak net financial income. We see downside risk to our earnings forecasts, pending a more comprehensive review. 

  • The Q3 2024 direct premiums of VND1.5tn increased 12% QoQ, which we believe was partly supported by seasonal healthcare insurance for students. We note that the health care insurance premium increased 54% YoY in H1 2024 and was the key premium growth driver. BMI’s direct premium growth of 14.1% YoY vs the systemwide non-life premium growth of 12.8% YoY in 9M 2024 indicates an expansion in BMI’s premium market share, which further strengthens its top-three position. The 9M 2024 retention ratio was 71.6% (vs 73.6% in 2023).  
  • The 9M 2024 combined ratio was 99.0%, which decreased by 1ppts YoY mainly due to (1) a 2-ppt YoY decrease in the loss ratio that. However, on a QoQ basis, the combined ratio increased 12 ppts QoQ in Q3 2024 to 112.6%, which resulted in an underwriting loss of VND73bn. Overall, 9M 2024 underwriting profit completes 29% of our full-year forecast and tracks behind our expectation despite robust premium growth, which is mainly due to a 14% YoY surge in underwriting expenses and other related expenses. Though the 9M 2024 breakdown is not available, we have observed that direct underwriting expenses and marketing expenses surged 18% YoY and 35% YoY in H1 2024, respectively.  
  • 9M 2024 net financial income significantly decreased 25% YoY, which was mostly driven by a 20% YoY decrease in financial income, which we attribute to most term deposits being rolled over to lower yields amid the company’s strategy to prioritize SOE banks and MBB. Overall, 9M 2024 net financial income completes 68% of our full-year forecast and tracks behind our expectation mainly due to a 114% QoQ increase in Q3 2024 financial expenses. 

BMI’s 9M 2024 results

VND bn

 9M 2023 

 9M 2024 

 YoY 

 Q3 2023 

 Q3 2024 

 YoY 

Direct premium

 4,061 

 4,635 

14.1%

 1,369 

 1,500 

9.6%

Inward reinsurance premium

 494 

 551 

11.5%

 168 

 189 

12.5%

Gross written premium

 4,555 

 5,186 

13.8%

 1,537 

 1,689 

9.9%

Outward reinsurance premium

 (1,270)

 (1,471)

15.8%

 (381)

 (570)

49.5%

Net written premium

 3,285 

 3,714 

13.1%

 1,156 

 1,119 

-3.2%

Unearned premium reserve

 42 

 (50)

-220.9%

 (43)

 71 

-264.4%

Net earned premium

 3,326 

 3,664 

10.1%

 1,113 

 1,190 

6.9%

Other premiums earned

 147 

 173 

17.7%

 44 

 68 

56.6%

Claims and losses

 (1,281)

 (1,337)

4.4%

 (473)

 (474)

0.1%

- of which: net claims

 (1,151)

 (1,226)

6.5%

 (393)

 (409)

4.3%

Underwriting expense

 (2,032)

 (2,319)

14.1%

 (693)

 (814)

17.5%

G&A expense

 (126)

 (147)

16.4%

 (45)

 (43)

-5.4%

Operating income

 34 

 33 

-2.9%

 (55)

 (73)

33.0%

Financial income

 345 

 277 

-19.7%

 211 

 148 

-29.7%

Financial expense

 (105)

 (96)

-8.0%

 (62)

 (46)

-25.5%

Net financial income

 240 

 181 

-24.8%

 149 

 102 

-31.4%

PBT

 283 

 219 

-22.7%

 98 

 32 

-67.9%

NPAT

 254 

 194 

-23.5%

 107 

 44 

-58.6%

Loss ratio

38.5%

36.5%

-2.0 ppts

42.5%

39.8%

-2.7 ppts

Expense ratio

61.9%

62.5%

0.6 ppts

59.9%

72.8%

12.8 ppts

Combined ratio

100.4%

99.0%

-1.4 ppts

102.5%

112.6%

10.1 ppts

Source: BMI, Vietcap

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