BID - Strong investment gains support NOII growth, counteract high credit costs in Q4 - Earnings Flash
  • 2025-02-03T00:00:00
  • Company Research

BID released its 2024 results with PBT of VND31.4tn (USD1.2bn; +14% YoY), completing 102% of our full-year forecast. The results imply Q4 2024 PBT of VND9.3tn (+44% QoQ; +19% YoY). Overall, BID’s results tracked in line with our expectations. We see no potential material changes to our current earnings forecasts for the medium term, pending a more extensive review.

  • 2024 credit growth was 15.5% (loan growth of 15.7%; corporate bonds decreased 25.9% YoY and accounted for 0.3% of total credit) vs our forecast of 14.0%. BID’s 2024 credit growth was slightly faster than the system-wide credit growth of 15.1% and BID’s lending market share remained the largest. 
  • 2024 customer deposits growth was 14.6%. The Q4 2024 CASA ratio was 20.1% (+1.5 ppts QoQ; flat YoY).  
  • 2024 NIM was 2.32% (-25 bps YoY) vs our forecast of 2.46%. Q4 2024 NIM was 2.39% (+14 bps QoQ; -33 bps YoY). BID was one of the few banks under our coverage that reported a QoQ increase in Q4 2024 NIM, which was mainly driven by improvement in both the IEA yield and funding costs (increasing the CASA ratio). We believe BID’s IEA yield has been supported by (1) improving debt collection activities and (2) optimizing LDR.   
  • NOII bounced back in Q4 2024 and beat our forecast due to strong gains from trading investment securities and trading FX. 2024 NOII was VND23.1tn (+37% YoY), completing 127% of our forecast. Q4 2024 NOII was VND10.8tn (+229% QoQ; +88% YoY), driven by (1) a 33% QoQ increase in pure NFI, (2) a 97% QoQ spike in gains from FX trading, (3) gains from trading investment securities of VND5.2tn (vs a loss of VND486bn in Q3 2024),  and (4) a 29% YoY increase in net other income (mainly comprised of recovery from written-off bad debts).
  • 2024 CIR was relatively flat YoY at 34.3% vs our forecast of 35.5%. 
  • Bad debt metrics improved QoQ. The Q4 2024 NPL ratio was 1.41% (-30 bps QoQ; +16 bps YoY). The Group 2 loans level was 1.66% (-1 bps QoQ; +8 bps YoY). Q4 2024 LLR was strengthened again to 133.7% (+18 ppts QoQ; -48 ppts YoY).
  • 2024 provision expenses increased 8% YoY and were higher than our expectation (completing 113% of our forecast). We believe a 73% QoQ surge in Q4 2024 provision expenses was driven by BID’s provisioning acceleration to write off bad debts and strengthen its top-tier provisioning buffer.  

BID’s consolidated 2024 results 

VND bn 

 2023 

 2024 

 YoY 

 Q4 2023 

 Q4 2024 

 YoY 

 NII 

 56,136 

 58,008 

3.3%

 14,869 

 15,639 

5.2%

 Non-interest income 

 16,877 

 23,052 

36.6%

 5,722 

 10,767 

88.2%

 OPEX 

 (25,081)

 (27,790)

10.8%

 (7,831)

 (9,382)

19.8%

 PPOP  

 47,932 

 53,270 

11.1%

 12,761 

 17,023 

33.4%

 Provision expenses 

 (20,344)

 (21,887)

7.6%

 (4,934)

 (7,687)

55.8%

 NPAT-MI  

 21,505 

 24,658 

14.7%

 6,029 

 7,328 

21.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Loan growth**

16.8%

15.7%

-1.1 ppts

7.5%

5.3%

-2.2 ppts

 Deposit growth**  

15.7%

14.6%

-1.1 ppts

7.6%

4.2%

-3.4 ppts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 NIM 

2.57%

2.32%

-25 bps

2.72%

2.39%

-33 bps

 Interest-earning asset yield 

7.00%

5.54%

-146 bps

6.86%

5.56%

-130 bps

 Cost of funds 

4.72%

3.42%

-130 bps

4.43%

3.36%

-107 bps

 CASA ratio*

20.2%

20.1%

-0.1 ppts

20.2%

20.1%

-0.1 ppts

 CASA ratio plus term deposits in FX    

23.9%

24.1%

0.2 ppts

23.9%

24.1%

0.2 ppts

 CIR 

34.4%

34.3%

-0.1 ppts

38.0%

35.5%

-2.5 ppts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 NPLs / Gross loans   

1.25%

1.41%

16 bps

1.25%

1.41%

16 bps

 Group 2 loans / Gross loans  

1.58%

1.66%

8 bps

1.58%

1.66%

8 bps

 Accrued interest / IEAs  

0.68%

0.85%

17 bps

0.68%

0.85%

17 bps

Source: BID, Vietcap — *CASA volume includes demand deposits and margin deposits; ** Q4 2023 and Q4 2024 loan and deposit growth is QoQ growth; 2023 and 2024 loan and deposit growth is 12M growth.

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