- We raise our target prices (TP) for all 12 banks under our coverage as (1) the positive impact of rolling our TP horizon forward to end-2025F outweighs (2) a 7% decrease in our aggregate 2024-2028F NPAT-MI (respective changes of -3.6%/-4.3%/-4.4%/-3.8%/-2.4% in 2024/25/26/27/28F).

- Our lower aggregate 2024-2028F NPAT is primarily due to (i) a   6.9% decrease in aggregate NII following a downward revision for our average NIM over this period from 3.82% to 3.74%, driven by higher competition in lending rates and an expected uptick in CoF, and (ii) a 4.6% aggregate decrease in NOII following a slower-than-expected recovery of banca activities, which outweigh (iii) a 1.8% downward revision in the aggregate provision expense.

- We forecast aggregate NIM for banks under our coverage at 3.69% in 2025F (+14 bps YoY), driven by (1) stronger credit demand from retail borrowers, (2) reduced support packages for customers as the economy recovers, and (3) better asset quality.

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