- 2025-04-29T00:00:00
- Company Research
- AST reported Q1 2025 revenue of 385bn (+13% YoY; 23% of our full-year forecast) and NPAT-MI of VND55bn (+57% YoY; 27% of our full-year forecast).
- These results slightly beat our forecast, driven by higher-than-expected GPM and lower-than-expected SG&A/sales. We see slight upside potential to our forecast, pending a fuller review.
- As of Q1 2025, AST operates 144 locations, with 47% located in international terminals and the remaining 53% in domestic terminals. This includes 19 locations secured at the newly opened Tan Son Nhat International Airport Terminal 3 (TSN T3), per management.
- We note that AST’s 19 locations at T3 will gradually rollout after Reunification Day on April 30. Specifically, management expects the retail, fast-food, and restaurant segments to be fully operational shortly after the holiday, while lounges are expected to come online by mid-2025. In addition, AST is pursuing a bid for a tourist information center at T3.
- Notably, our on-site observations at TSN T3 show that AST has secured prime locations for its retail stores in the new terminal, particularly in boarding areas which offer the strongest demand for services. Although AST has won just over 20% of the total space area at T3, its stores occupy nearly 50% of the premium locations within the terminal.
- International passengers: In Q1 2025, passenger numbers increased 13% YoY, reaching 11.8 million, completing 25% of our full-year forecast. Notably, Chinese arrivals achieved 124% of the pre-COVID level, significantly improving from 64% in 2024. Looking ahead, we expect international passengers to sustain robust growth in 2025, with a stronger rebound in Chinese arrivals.
- Domestic passengers: In Q1 2025, passenger numbers improved slightly by 3% YoY, reaching 18.1 million, completing 24% of our full-year forecast. We attribute the improvement to consumer purchasing power recovery. Looking ahead, we expect further growth in domestic passengers, supported by gradually easing airfares when domestic airlines address aircraft shortages and fuel costs decline.
- In Q1 2025, GPM expanded 1.4 ppts QoQ and 2.2 ppts YoY, reaching 63.0% of our full-year forecast of 60.5%. We attribute this expansion to 1) a higher contribution from international passenger revenue, which yields higher margins; 2) a gradual recovery in sales per store; and 3) strategic initiatives to adjust store models and enhance product mixes per store.
- In Q1 2025, SG&A expenses were 41.5% (+1.6 ppts QoQ; -1.0 ppts YoY), better than our full-year forecast of 42.2%. We attribute this to AST’s ongoing strategy to enhance the stores’ operational efficiency amid pressure from ACV’s revenue-sharing scheme.
- VINACS—AST's air catering associate—contributed VND1.8bn (vs VND2.5bn losses in Q1 2024; 23% of our full-year forecast) to AST’s earnings in Q1 2025. We expect VINACS to sustain profitability in 2025F, with a projected profit contributing VND8bn to AST in 2025F.
AST’s Q1 2025 results
VND bn | Q1 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | QoQ | YoY | Q1 2025 as % of 2025F | 2025F |
Revenue | 340 | 352 | 385 | 9% | 13% | 23% | 1,657 |
Gross Profit | 206 | 217 | 243 | 12% | 18% | 24% | 1,003 |
SG&A | -146 | -142 | -160 | 12% | 9% | 23% | -699 |
Operating Profit | 60 | 74 | 83 | 11% | 38% | 27% | 303 |
Financial income | 5 | 5 | 4 | -12% | -15% | 17% | 24 |
Financial expense | -2 | -1 | 0 | -89% | -97% | 1% | -5 |
Associates | -2 | 0 | 2 | 283% | -173% | 12% | 15 |
PBT | 63 | 74 | 89 | 20% | 41% | 26% | 338 |
NPAT-MI | 35 | 42 | 55 | 30% | 57% | 27% | 203 |
GPM | 60.8% | 61.6% | 63.0% |
|
|
| 60.5% |
SG&A/revenue | -43.1% | -40.5% | -41.5% |
|
|
| -42.2% |
OPM | 17.7% | 21.2% | 21.5% |
|
|
| 18.3% |
PBT margin | 18.5% | 21.1% | 23.1% |
|
|
| 20.4% |
NPM | 10.3% | 12.0% | 14.2% |
|
|
| 12.2% |
Source: AST, Vietcap forecasts
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