- 2024-10-30T00:00:00
- Company Research
- AST released its Q3 2024 results with revenue and NPAT up by 15% and 33% YoY, respectively. For 9M 2024, revenue and NPAT-MI grew 21%/23% YoY, fulfilling 69% and 67% of our respective 2024 full-year forecasts. We foresee minimal changes to our forecasts, pending a fuller review.
- The robust recovery of international passengers continues to fuel growth. In 9M 2024, international passenger numbers surged 30% YoY, totaling 30.5 million, in line with our full-year forecast of 45 million. Typically, Q4 is the high season for international passengers, with an average contribution of 31% to the full-year total number of passengers.
- In 9M 2024, foreign arrivals rebounded to 99% of pre-COVID-19 levels, although the recovery of Chinese arrivals lagged, reaching only 68%. We expect the recovery of international passengers to continue, with a higher recovery rate of Chinese arrivals in Q4 2024 and 2025.
- In constrast, in 9M 2024, domestic passenger numbers dropped 18% YoY to 52.8 million due to high airfares. We expect high airfares to ease gradually as domestic airlines complete aircraft repairs and fuel costs decrease. Additionally, an improvement in customer purchasing power should support a recovery in domestic passengers.
- GPM slightly expanded to 61.0% in 9M 2024, exceeding the 2019 level of 54%. We attribute this to gradually recovering sales per store and strategic initiatives to enhance operational efficiency through store model adjustments and optimized product mixes.
- AST currently operates 123 stores, +3 stores vs 2023 at the Tan Son Nhat (HCMC), Noi Bai (Hanoi), and Da Nang airports.
AST’s 9M 2024 results
VND bn | Q3 2023 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | QoQ | YoY | 9M 2023 | 9M 2024 | YoY | 9M 2024 as % of 2024F | 2024F |
Revenue | 285 | 310 | 329 | 6% | 15% | 810 | 979 | 21% | 69% | 1,419 |
Gross Profit | 168 | 188 | 202 | 7% | 20% | 469 | 596 | 27% | 69% | 868 |
SG&A | -129 | -139 | -140 | 1% | 9% | -359 | -425 | 18% | 67% | -633 |
Operating Profit | 39 | 50 | 61 | 23% | 58% | 110 | 171 | 56% | 73% | 235 |
Financial income | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0% | -6% | 12 | 13 | 6% | 64% | 21 |
Financial expense | -1 | -1 | -1 | 108% | 40% | -3 | -4 | 22% | 73% | -5 |
Associates | 2 | 1 | 0 | -100% | -100% | 8 | 1 | -86% | 25% | 5 |
PBT | 44 | 55 | 64 | 18% | 46% | 128 | 182 | 42% | 69% | 263 |
NPAT-MI | 29 | 33 | 39 | 19% | 33% | 86 | 106 | 23% | 67% | 158 |
GPM | 58.9% | 60.8% | 61.2% |
|
| 57.9% | 61.0% |
|
| 61.2% |
SG&A/revenue | -45.2% | -44.7% | -42.6% |
|
| -44.3% | -43.5% |
|
| -44.6% |
OPM | 13.6% | 16.1% | 18.6% |
|
| 13.6% | 17.5% |
|
| 16.6% |
PBT margin | 15.5% | 17.7% | 19.6% |
|
| 15.8% | 18.6% |
|
| 18.5% |
NPM | 10.3% | 10.5% | 11.8% |
|
| 10.7% | 10.9% |
|
| 11.1% |
Source: AST, Vietcap forecast
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