ACV – Strong 35% YoY NPAT-MI growth in line with forecast

ACV reported its 2024 results with revenue of VND22.6tn (USD886mn; +13% YoY; 99% of our full-year forecast) and NPAT-MI of VND11.6tn (USD455mn; +35% YoY; 99% of our full-year forecast). We see insignificant changes to our forecast, pending a fuller review.
In Q4 2024, revenue was VND5.7tn (USD224mn; +1% QoQ; +13% YoY) and NPAT-MI was VND3.1tn (USD122mn; +32% QoQ; +98% YoY), up from Q4 2023’s low base. We note that ACV’s earnings reached a record low in Q3 and Q4 2023 due to a large bad debt provision of VND674bn (USD26mn) and VND1.2tn (USD47mn).
In 2024, international passenger numbers surged 27% YoY, totaling 41.4 million, completing 92% of our full-year forecast. Foreign arrivals nearly fully recovered, reaching 98% of the pre-COVID-19 levels, with Chinese arrivals at 64%. We anticipate continued recovery through 2025, with a stronger rebound in Chinese arrivals.
In 2024, domestic passenger numbers decreased 15% YoY to 68.6 million due to high airfare, completing 100% of our full-year forecast. In 2025F, we expect airfares to gradually ease as domestic airlines address aircraft shortages and fuel costs decline, while improving consumer purchasing power supports the recovery in domestic travel.
In Q4 2024, ACV reduced its bad debt provisions by VND160bn (USD6.3mn), bringing the total provision balance to VND3.8tn (USD148mn) as of 2024YE. In 2024, ACV booked VND60bn (USD2.4mn; -98% YoY) in bad debt provisions, lower than our forecast of VND250bn (USD9.8mn). These results reflect the positive recovery of domestic airlines and ACV’s effective strategy to prevent the emergence of new receivables.
ACV recognized FX gains of VND659bn (USD25.8mn) in Q4 2024 due to a 5% depreciation in the JPY/VND benefiting ACV’s JPY debt load. This gain more than offset the VND261bn of FX losses incurred in 9M 2024, resulting in 2024 net FX gains of VND391bn (-5% YoY), beating our expected FX loss of VND103bn (USD4mn).

ACV’s 2024 results

VND bn	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	QoQ	YoY	2023	2024	YoY	2024A/2024F	2024F
Net revenue	5,047	5,655	5,721	1%	13%	20,032	22,555	13%	99%	22,796
Aeronautical revenue	3,429	3,970	4,043	2%	18%	13,881	15,837	14%	100%	15,896
Take-off and landing fees	639	715	721	1%	13%	2,571	2,811	9%	99%	2,833
Non-aeronautical revenue	1,034	988	1,010	2%	-2%	3,686	4,011	9%	100%	4,004
ACV’s net revenue *	4,463	4,957	5,053	2%	13%	17,567	19,848	13%	99%	19,963
Gross profit	2,697	3,642	3,112	-15%	15%	11,924	13,813	16%	97%	14,221
SG&A	-1,410	-385	-298	-23%	-79%	-3,697	-1,512	-59%	99%	-1,530
EBIT	1,287	3,258	2,814	-14%	119%	8,227	12,301	50%	97%	12,690
Financial income	648	294	910	209%	40%	2,501	2,511	0%	173%	1,453
Financial expenses	-44	-809	-22	-97%	-50%	-410	-876	114%	544%	-161
Net income from associates	32	134	105	-22%	230%	277	382	38%	198%	193
PBT	1,941	2,878	3,827	33%	97%	10,621	14,333	35%	101%	14,213
PBT adj. for FX	1,722	3,662	3,175	-13%	84%	10,210	13,941	37%	99%	14,113
NPAT	1,565	2,339	3,089	32%	97%	8,574	11,577	35%	99%	11,664
NPAT-MI	1,561	2,336	3,085	32%	98%	8,564	11,564	35%	99%	11,629
ACV’s NPAT-MI	1,310	1,978	2,852	44%	118%	7,321	10,321	41%	101%	10,258
State’s NPAT-MI **	251	358	233	-35%	-7%	1,243	1,242	0%	91%	1,371
D&A	590	562	567	1%	-4%	2,364	2,288	-3%	89%	2,565
EBITDA	1,877	3,819	3,381	-11%	80%	10,591	14,589	38%	96%	15,256
GPM	53.4%	64.4%	54.4%			59.5%	61.2%			62.4%
SG&A/rev	-27.9%	-6.8%	-5.2%			-18.5%	-6.7%			-6.7%
EBITDA margin	37.2%	67.5%	59.1%			52.9%	64.7%			66.9%
NPM *	29.4%	39.9%	56.4%			41.7%	52.0%			51.4%

Source: ACV, Vietcap forecasts. Note: (*) Excluding contributions from State-invested aviation assets;
(**) NPAT-MI from assets owned by the State (State-invested aviation assets) — the State authorizes ACV to manage these assets (including runways).

ACV’s accounts receivable as of Q3 2024 (VND bn)

VND bn	Total	Gross doubtful receivable	Net doubtful receivable
All clients	10,447	7,851	4,066
Vietjet Air	2,713	1,877	1,873
Bamboo Airways	2,376	2,375	0
Vietnam Airlines	3,062	2,304	2,192
Pacific Airlines	889	889	0

Source: ACV