ACV – Strong 35% YoY NPAT-MI growth in line with forecast - Earnings Flash
  • 2025-02-03T00:00:00
  • Company Research
  • ACV reported its 2024 results with revenue of VND22.6tn (USD886mn; +13% YoY; 99% of our full-year forecast) and NPAT-MI of VND11.6tn (USD455mn; +35% YoY; 99% of our full-year forecast). We see insignificant changes to our forecast, pending a fuller review.
  • In Q4 2024, revenue was VND5.7tn (USD224mn; +1% QoQ; +13% YoY) and NPAT-MI was VND3.1tn (USD122mn; +32% QoQ; +98% YoY), up from Q4 2023’s low base. We note that ACV’s earnings reached a record low in Q3 and Q4 2023 due to a large bad debt provision of VND674bn (USD26mn) and VND1.2tn (USD47mn).
  • In 2024, international passenger numbers surged 27% YoY, totaling 41.4 million, completing 92% of our full-year forecast. Foreign arrivals nearly fully recovered, reaching 98% of the pre-COVID-19 levels, with Chinese arrivals at 64%. We anticipate continued recovery through 2025, with a stronger rebound in Chinese arrivals.
  • In 2024, domestic passenger numbers decreased 15% YoY to 68.6 million due to high airfare, completing 100% of our full-year forecast. In 2025F, we expect airfares to gradually ease as domestic airlines address aircraft shortages and fuel costs decline, while improving consumer purchasing power supports the recovery in domestic travel.
  • In Q4 2024, ACV reduced its bad debt provisions by VND160bn (USD6.3mn), bringing the total provision balance to VND3.8tn (USD148mn) as of 2024YE. In 2024, ACV booked VND60bn (USD2.4mn; -98% YoY) in bad debt provisions, lower than our forecast of VND250bn (USD9.8mn). These results reflect the positive recovery of domestic airlines and ACV’s effective strategy to prevent the emergence of new receivables.
  • ACV recognized FX gains of VND659bn (USD25.8mn) in Q4 2024 due to a 5% depreciation in the JPY/VND benefiting ACV’s JPY debt load. This gain more than offset the VND261bn of FX losses incurred in 9M 2024, resulting in 2024 net FX gains of VND391bn (-5% YoY), beating our expected FX loss of VND103bn (USD4mn).

ACV’s 2024 results

VND bn

Q4 2023

Q3 2024

Q4 2024

QoQ

YoY

2023

2024

YoY

2024A/2024F

2024F

Net revenue

5,047

5,655

5,721

1%

13%

20,032

22,555

13%

99%

22,796

Aeronautical revenue

3,429

3,970

4,043

2%

18%

13,881

15,837

14%

100%

15,896

Take-off and landing fees

639

715

721

1%

13%

2,571

2,811

9%

99%

2,833

Non-aeronautical revenue

1,034

988

1,010

2%

-2%

3,686

4,011

9%

100%

4,004

ACV’s net revenue *

4,463

4,957

5,053

2%

13%

17,567

19,848

13%

99%

19,963

Gross profit

2,697

3,642

3,112

-15%

15%

11,924

13,813

16%

97%

14,221

SG&A

-1,410

-385

-298

-23%

-79%

-3,697

-1,512

-59%

99%

-1,530

EBIT

1,287

3,258

2,814

-14%

119%

8,227

12,301

50%

97%

12,690

Financial income

648

294

910

209%

40%

2,501

2,511

0%

173%

1,453

Financial expenses

-44

-809

-22

-97%

-50%

-410

-876

114%

544%

-161

Net income from associates

32

134

105

-22%

230%

277

382

38%

198%

193

PBT

1,941

2,878

3,827

33%

97%

10,621

14,333

35%

101%

14,213

PBT adj. for FX 

1,722

3,662

3,175

-13%

84%

10,210

13,941

37%

99%

14,113

NPAT

1,565

2,339

3,089

32%

97%

8,574

11,577

35%

99%

11,664

NPAT-MI

1,561

2,336

3,085

32%

98%

8,564

11,564

35%

99%

11,629

      ACV’s NPAT-MI

1,310

1,978

2,852

44%

118%

7,321

10,321

41%

101%

10,258

      State’s NPAT-MI **

251

358

233

-35%

-7%

1,243

1,242

0%

91%

1,371

D&A

590

562

567

1%

-4%

2,364

2,288

-3%

89%

2,565

EBITDA

1,877

3,819

3,381

-11%

80%

10,591

14,589

38%

96%

15,256

GPM

53.4%

64.4%

54.4%

 

 

59.5%

61.2%

 

 

62.4%

SG&A/rev

-27.9%

-6.8%

-5.2%

 

 

-18.5%

-6.7%

 

 

-6.7%

EBITDA margin

37.2%

67.5%

59.1%

 

 

52.9%

64.7%

 

 

66.9%

NPM *

29.4%

39.9%

56.4%

 

 

41.7%

52.0%

 

 

51.4%

Source: ACV, Vietcap forecasts. Note: (*) Excluding contributions from State-invested aviation assets;
 (**) NPAT-MI from assets owned by the State (State-invested aviation assets) — the State authorizes ACV to manage these assets (including runways).

ACV’s accounts receivable as of Q3 2024 (VND bn)

VND bn

Total

Gross doubtful receivable

Net doubtful receivable

All clients

10,447

7,851

4,066

Vietjet Air

2,713

1,877

1,873

Bamboo Airways

2,376

2,375

0

Vietnam Airlines

3,062

2,304

2,192

Pacific Airlines

889

889

0

Source: ACV

 

 

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