ACB released its 2024 results, reporting TOI of VND33.5tn (USD1.3tn; 2.3% YoY) and PBT of VND21.0tn (USD834mn; +4.7% YoY), completing 96% and 100% of our respective full-year forecasts. On a QoQ basis, Q4 2024 TOI was flat compared to the previous quarter while PBT increased by 17.1% due to the significant decrease in provision expenses (-58.8% QoQ). Despite flat earnings growth in 2024, ACB maintained a robust ROE of 22%, positioning it among the top tier in our coverage. We see no material changes to our current earnings forecasts, pending a more extensive review. 

1. Credit growth 

• 2024 credit growth was 19.1% with the credit growth for retail, SME, and large corporate segments at 14.9%, 12.1%, and 86.2%, respectively.  

• We attribute strong credit growth in the large corporate segment to (1) its growth from a low base, increasing from 6% of ACB's loan book in 2023 to 10% by the end of 2024, and (2) ACB’s ability to offer competitive lending rates to these customers. ACB targets top corporate and FDI clients, with FDI loans reportedly growing by approximately 50% in 2024, according to the bank.  

• ACB reported double-digit growth in its mortgage segment in 2024 at approximately 11%. This performance is notable given the slow recovery of the real estate market in southern Vietnam and ACB's focus on the secondary market. We believe ACB has benefited from Circular 06/2023, which allows homebuyers to refinance their loans with another bank offering more attractive lending rates. 

• For its 2025F outlook, ACB anticipates credit growth of at least 16%, aligning with the SBV’s system-wide credit growth target, while retail loans are projected to grow by approximately 18%.   

2. Deposit growth 

• 2024 deposit growth was 11.3% and valuable papers growth (including bonds and CDs) was 94.0%.  In an environment of rising interest rates, we believe that raising funds through medium-to-long-term valuable papers will help ACB stabilize its funding costs. Additionally, we observed that ACB raised its deposit rates the least among the private banks in our coverage.  

• ACB’s Q4 2024 CASA ratio was 22.7% (+69 bps YoY and +110 bps QoQ). 

• ACB believes that the interest rate environment can increase up to 50 bps in 2025F.  

3. NIM 

• 2024 NIM was 3.59%, decreasing 27 bps YoY vs our full-year forecast of 3.76%. On a QoQ basis, ACB’s NIM continues to be under pressure, which decreased 11 bps QoQ to 3.51% in Q4 2024.  

• We attribute this to the lower lending yield under the high competition between banks and the weak retail credit demand, while the deposit rates have been increasing since H2 2024.  

• In 2025F, ACB anticipates flat NIM.  

4. NOII and OPEX 

• 2024 NOII was VND5.7tn (-26.5% YoY), completing 96% of our full-year forecast. This decline was mainly due to (1) low income from recovery of bad debts with other income decreasing 27.8% YoY and (2) ACB recording high one-off income from selling Government bonds in 2023.  

• ACB's pure NFI grew by 10.8% YoY, despite the underperformance of its bancassurance activities, which had been a key income driver in previous years. This growth was supported by ACB's efforts to boost fee income from its card services and payment services segments.  

• 2024 OPEX was well-controlled with a CIR of 32.5% (flat YoY).  

5. Asset quality  

• ACB’s Q4 2024 NPL ratio of 1.51% was relatively flat compared with the previous two quarters. In addition, ACB’s Q4 2024 Group 2 loans ratio decreased 14 bps QoQ to 0.49%, combined with the proportion of Group 3 and Group 4 loans decreasing as it deteriorated to Group 5. As a result, we believe ACB will face reduced provisioning pressure in 2025. 

• ACB aims to maintain its 2025F NPL ratio below 1.5%.  

ACB’s consolidated 2024 results 

Source: ACB, Vietcap — *CASA volume includes demand deposits and margin deposits.