- We reiterate our BUY rating for KBC but trim our target price (TP) by 1% to VND36,100/share, as higher net debt as of end-Q1 2025 and lower projections for land sales and ASP growth are largely offset by rolling our TP horizon forward to mid-2026 and removing dilution effects following the exclusion of our previously assumed private placement from the forecasts.

- We forecast 2025F NPAT-MI to surge by 266% YoY to VND1.4tn (USD54mn) as we expect IP land handovers to reach 145 ha (vs a low base of ~33 ha in 2024; ~90 ha in Q1 2025), driven by the launches of the Hung Yen ICs (Hung Yen) and Trang Due 3 IP (Hai Phong). For 2026F, we forecast a 57% YoY increase in NPAT-MI primarily driven by the expected launches and handovers at the Trang Cat UA project as it fully paid land use rights fee in Q1 2025.  

- We cut out 2025/26F NPAT-MI forecasts by 18%/41%, respectively, mainly due to downward revisions in our projections for 2025/26F IP and UA land handovers amid potential challenges from the recent US reciprocal tariff announcement and ongoing trade negotiations.

- We remove our previous assumptions regarding the private placement plan (up to 250 million shares; 33% of current O/S) from our forecast and valuation, given potential delays from recent tariff announcements, though management still guides for execution in 2025G.

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